Patrick Warns Talarico Could Win Texas House Race In Surprise Upset
Patrick Warns Talarico Could Win Texas House Race In Surprise Upset...
Former Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick issued a stark warning to Republicans on Monday, saying Democratic challenger James Talarico could pull off an upset in the state's 52nd House District. The rare admission from a top GOP leader has sparked concerns among conservatives as early voting begins in the closely watched April 23 special election.
Patrick told supporters at a fundraiser in Round Rock that Talarico, a former state representative, is "running the best campaign I've seen in years" and could benefit from low Republican turnout. The district, which includes parts of Williamson County north of Austin, has trended more competitive in recent years amid Texas' suburban political shifts.
Talarico, 33, previously held the seat from 2019-2021 before losing to Republican Rep. Larry Gonzales in a redistricting year. His campaign has focused on education funding and healthcare access, while Republican nominee Mike Guevara has emphasized border security and property taxes.
The race gained national attention last week when Talarico outraised Guevara by nearly 3-to-1 in the most recent fundraising reports. Democratic groups have poured over $1.2 million into the race, sensing an opportunity in what was once considered safe Republican territory.
Local election officials report higher-than-expected early voting numbers, particularly in Democratic-leaning precincts around Round Rock ISD schools. Political analysts say the outcome could signal whether Texas' suburban shifts seen in 2020 and 2022 are continuing ahead of November's midterms.
Patrick's warning comes as recent internal polling shows the race within the margin of error. The Texas Republican Party has now redirected $500,000 in last-minute ad buys to the district, according to campaign finance filings reviewed by The Texas Tribune.
Early voting continues through Friday ahead of the April 23 special election. The winner will serve the remainder of Gonzales' term through January 2027.
